Plan your tropical Florida Keys celebration with 30 years of historical weather data. Key West's subtropical climate makes winter the prime season—December through March delivers warm, dry, and supremely comfortable conditions for outdoor events.
Key West is one of the few US destinations where winter is peak season for outdoor events. Based on 30 years of data, December through March offers the ideal combination of warmth, low humidity, and minimal rain:
Historical averages based on 30 years of climate data (1995–2024) from Key West International Airport weather station
| Month | Avg High | Avg Low | Rain Chance | Comfort Score | Event Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 75°F | 65°F | 21% | 100/100 | |
| February | 77°F | 67°F | 17% | 100/100 | |
| March | 79°F | 69°F | 16% | 88/100 | |
| April | 82°F | 73°F | 15% | 69/100 | |
| May | 85°F | 76°F | 24% | 46/100 | |
| June | 88°F | 79°F | 38% | 0/100 | |
| July | 90°F | 81°F | 38% | 0/100 | |
| August | 90°F | 80°F | 47% | 0/100 | |
| September | 89°F | 79°F | 51% | 0/100 | |
| October | 85°F | 77°F | 40% | 22/100 | |
| November | 81°F | 72°F | 20% | 84/100 | |
| December | 77°F | 68°F | 22% | 98/100 |
These statistics represent 30-year averages (1995–2024) from Key West International Airport. The Comfort Score (0–100) combines temperature and humidity during afternoon/evening hours. Summer scores of 0/100 reflect extreme heat-humidity combinations—not extreme rain alone—that make outdoor events genuinely uncomfortable. Rain chance is calculated from NOAA station observations (not ERA5 model data), which is especially important for accurately capturing tropical precipitation patterns.
Key West sits in the heart of the Atlantic hurricane belt. While direct hits are rare, June through November brings elevated risk of tropical storms and hurricane-related weather. Event planners should purchase weather insurance and have contingency plans for any events scheduled during these months. October in particular combines hurricane risk (40% rain chance) with high heat and humidity.
Peak season (December–March) is also Key West's busiest tourist period. Wedding venues and outdoor event spaces book up 12–18 months in advance for January and February weekends. If you have flexibility, March offers excellent conditions with slightly more venue availability.
Key West's Mallory Square sunset celebration is world-famous for good reason. Winter sunsets (around 5:30–6 PM) provide a spectacular backdrop for ceremonies. The low humidity and comfortable temperatures of January and February make evening receptions genuinely enjoyable well into the night.
November is an underrated month for Key West events—comfort rebounds to 84/100, rain drops to 20%, and crowds thin out noticeably after the summer season. Temperatures in the low 80s°F with manageable humidity make it a strong option for couples who want a tropical setting without peak-season pricing.
Even in peak season, Key West's rain events are typically brief afternoon thunderstorms rather than all-day rain. That said, the tropics can be unpredictable. Weather insurance is strongly recommended for any outdoor event here, particularly from April through November. Most policies are inexpensive relative to total event costs.
Explore hour-by-hour weather patterns, sunrise/sunset times, and comfort ratings for your specific event date in Key West.
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