How Climocast Works

Transparent methodology, trusted data sources, and sophisticated algorithms delivering accurate climate insights for your planning needs.

Our Data Sources

Climocast combines multiple authoritative climate datasets to provide the most accurate historical weather information.

NOAA NCEI

National Centers for Environmental Information provides ground-truth weather observations from thousands of stations across North America, Caribbean, and Europe.

Role:

Used for bias correction and validation of ERA5 reanalysis data

ERA5 Reanalysis

ECMWF's 5th generation reanalysis provides hourly global weather estimates through sophisticated modeling and data assimilation at 0.1° resolution (~11 km).

Role:

Complete hourly coverage, gap-filling, and consistency across all locations

HURDAT2

National Hurricane Center's database tracks historical tropical cyclone activity with 6-hourly positions, intensity, and wind radii for comprehensive storm risk assessment.

Role:

Hurricane risk analysis for coastal and Caribbean locations

Why These Specific Sources?

✓ Government-Quality Standards

NCEI and HURDAT2 are maintained by NOAA, ensuring rigorous quality control and long-term data continuity. ERA5 is produced by ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

✓ Peer-Reviewed Data Sources

All three datasets are extensively documented in scientific literature and used by researchers worldwide for climate analysis.

✓ Complementary Strengths

NCEI provides accurate point observations, ERA5 ensures complete hourly coverage, and HURDAT2 adds tropical cyclone context for risk assessment.

✓ Public Accessibility

All datasets are freely available, allowing independent verification of our processing methods and results.

Why 20 Years of Data?

Two decades (1995-2024) provides the optimal balance between statistical significance and climate relevance.

Statistical Power

Captures Natural Variability

20 years includes multiple El Niño and La Niña cycles, droughts, wet periods, and heat waves—ensuring you're not planning based on a statistical outlier.

Climate Relevance

Reflects Recent Trends

Using only recent data ensures our statistics reflect current climate conditions rather than outdated patterns from 50+ years ago.

Data Quality

Modern Instrumentation

Post-1995 data benefits from improved weather station networks, better quality control, and consistent observation protocols.

Data Quality & Processing Tiers

Not all climate stations have equal data quality for the 20-year period. We assess the available observations for each station and use that information to determine the degree of bias correction to apply to the ERA5 reanalysis data.

Tier Data Quality Completeness Processing Method
Tier 1 Excellent ≥90% Full bias correction with high-quality station data
Tier 2 Good 75-89% Standard bias correction with good station data
Tier 3 Fair 50-74% Limited bias correction with selective station data
Tier 4 Poor 25-49% Minimal bias correction, ERA5-dominant
Tier 5 Very Poor <25% ERA5-only (no bias correction)

Understanding Processing Tiers

Completeness measures what percentage of the expected 20 years × 365 days = 7,300 daily observations are present in the station record. A station with 90% completeness has approximately 6,570 daily observations.

Data Quality is assessed based on completeness, data consistency, temporal coverage, and absence of suspicious patterns or gaps.

Tier Assignment is determined algorithmically during preprocessing based on both completeness percentage and quality confidence scores. Each location's tier is documented in its data confidence metadata.

ERA5 Bias Correction Explained

How we combine information from a global atmospheric reanalysis model and ground observations to create hourly reports of typical weather conditions.

Why Does ERA5 Need Correction?

ERA5 is a global atmospheric reanalysis model that provides complete coverage of the entire planet at hourly resolution. However, because it's a model rather than direct measurements, it can have systematic errors in specific locations—especially near coasts, mountains, or urban areas where local geography affects weather.

✓ ERA5 Strengths

  • • Complete global coverage (no gaps)
  • • Hourly temporal resolution
  • • Consistent methodology worldwide
  • • Available for all 20 years

⚠️ ERA5 Limitations

  • • Can be biased in complex terrain
  • • May underestimate extremes
  • • Systematic offsets in some regions
  • • Smooths small-scale features

Our solution: Use NCEI station observations as "ground truth" to calculate correction factors for ERA5 data, then apply those corrections to produce the most accurate possible hourly climate information.

When Bias Correction Isn't Possible

For Tier 5 locations with insufficient station data (<25% completeness or <5 observations for the date), we use raw ERA5 temperatures without bias correction.

In these cases, the data confidence metadata clearly indicates "ERA5-only mode" so users understand the data source and limitations. While less precise than bias-corrected data, raw ERA5 is still valuable for general planning purposes.

Precipitation Probabilities

Three levels of precipitation risk defined.

🌦️

Any Rain (≥0.01")

Measurable precipitation—enough to be detected but may not impact outdoor activities.

🌧️

Wetting Rain (≥0.10")

Enough to get noticeably wet without cover—outdoor events become uncomfortable.

⛈️

Heavy Rain (≥0.25")

Significant rainfall that will substantially impact outdoor events—equivalent to 6+ hours of steady light rain.

Comfort Score Calculation

Our 0-100 comfort score translates complex weather conditions into a simple, actionable metric for outdoor event planning.

What Goes Into the Comfort Score?

Temperature

Combined with humidity to calculate heat index (how hot it feels).

Humidity

Higher humidity increases apparent temperature and reduces evaporative cooling.

Why Noon - 7 PM?

Most outdoor events (weddings, corporate gatherings, sports) occur during daylight hours when comfort matters most. We specifically analyze the noon-7PM window to provide relevant comfort metrics for event planning.

Data Transparency & Limitations

What you should know about our data and its appropriate use cases.

✓ What Climocast Provides

  • Historical climate patterns from 20 years of observations
  • Statistical likelihood based on past weather on this date
  • Hourly resolution showing typical daily patterns
  • Transparent confidence tiers documenting data quality
  • Comprehensive metadata showing exactly how data was processed

✗ What Climocast Is NOT

  • A weather forecast for your specific event date
  • A guarantee of what weather will occur
  • Predictive of rare extreme weather events
  • Updated in real-time (uses historical data only)
  • A substitute for checking actual forecasts 7-10 days before your event